Across 500 acres north of West Palm Beach, the FPL Group utility is assembling a life-size Erector Set of 190,000 shimmering mirrors and thousands of steel pylons that stretch as far as the eye can see. When it is completed by the end of the year, this vast project will be the world's second-largest solar plant.
But that is not its real novelty. The solar array is being grafted onto the back of the nation's largest fossil-fuel power plant, fired by natural gas. It is an experiment in whether conventional power generation can be married with renewable power in a way that lowers costs and spares the environment.
In January 2010, the 5th highest CO2 concentrations in recorded history were recorded: 388.63ppm. This value was higher than any recorded in all of 2008. Only four months in 2009 saw higher values: March through June. Monthly averages of atmospheric CO2 concentrations are released by NOAA.
I've waited until the NSIDC released their Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis report for February instead of posting something one month after my last post, then waiting for the NSIDC's report to fill in some of the blanks in my discussion. From now on, I'll wait for their reports to come out before posting.
The state of polar sea ice in February 2010 is bad compared to climatological conditions (1979-2000). The global sea ice extent continues to track well below climatological values, as this graph demonstrates. The most recent data show that global sea ice covers ~15.5 million sq. km., compared to 16 million sq. km. normally. That's a recovery of 500,000 sq. km. from January, but still below average conditions. As I wrote last month, the last two times the annual minimum didn't fall below climatological norms were in 2008 and 2004. In a nutshell, the annual minimum extent has shifted in behavior in a significant way in the last decade.
Last week, I wrote about a study that had found warmer waters reaching the glaciers of Greenland, helping to melt those glaciers from below while warm temperatures melt them from above. This scenario presents numerous dangers for societies around the world. Faster melting glaciers means faster rising sea levels, which means more impacts sooner.
Today, I will write about a scenario that is potentially more threatening than glaciers melting faster than expected. New research demonstrates that the oceans are acidifying more quickly than has happened naturally for tens of millions of years. The threat that presents is when the last similar acidification event occurred, upwards of 50% of marine life went extinct. It took hundreds of thousands to millions of years to recover from this catastrophe. It is known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM, and it happened 55 million years ago. The event saw global temperatures rise by around 6°C (11°F) over 20,000 years, with a corresponding rise in sea level as the whole of the oceans warmed. To put that warming in context, climatologists are warning that global temperatures could rise by a similar amount over ~200 years. That's 100 times faster than the last rapid global warming event of similar magnitude.
As most of you are well aware, last week was a snow week in Washington, DC, and the odds are pretty good that there's something like that going on for you as well.
Our good friends in the conservative community have seized upon the moment as proof that this whole "global warming" thing is just a big scam perpetrated by the likes of Al Gore and his Legion Of Weather Nazis; their mission being only to deprive the American people of their Constitutional right to Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of a Ford Super Duty F-450 King Ranch Edition with the Heavy Service Suspension Package, Snow Plow Prep Package, Transmission Power Take-Off Provision, dual alternators, and supplemental cab heater.
To drive the point home, last week Senator James Inhofe's family went to the time and trouble to build a little igloo on the National Mall for our amusement.
But here's a question: just what has the weather been like in other places-for example, in my part of the world...or in the Senator's home State of Oklahoma?
It's a good question-and the Senator won't like the answer.
A team of researchers are reporting that larger amounts of warm waters are reaching the high latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean. Those waters are causing additional melting of some of Greenland's glaciers from below. This constitutes a new threat to the long-term existence of those glaciers as warmer atmospheric temperatures have already caused them to melt faster from above.
The interaction of warmer currents and ice sheets at the poles remain one of the least understood processes in the climate system. Even today's state-of-the-art climate models don't include these processes, which could have a large effect on important climate details.
The state of polar sea ice in late January 2010 is bad compared to climatological conditions (1979-2000). For the fifth time in the past six years, the global sea ice extent minimum has fallen well below climatological values, as this graph demonstrates. The most recent data show that global sea ice covers ~15 million sq. km., compared to 16 million sq. km. normally. The last two times the annual minimum didn't fall below climatological norms were in 2008 and 2004. In a nutshell, the annual minimum extent has shifted in behavior in a significant way in the last decade.
The North Carolina Coastal Resource Commission just finished the first study of sea level rise in the United States.
The most significant part of the study was what the report said about what the market has decided about sea level rise.
...even if the public and governments drag their feet on reacting to a changing coast, others aren't waiting to adapt.
State Farm, for example, announced this week that it will no longer write or renew insurance policies for structures on barrier islands to reduce its exposure in areas prone to catastrophic events like hurricanes.
(if you think 59 dems in the Senate is an earthquake, maybe this will change your mind... - promoted by wade norris)
I'm amazed at the number of earthquakes, reported and unreported, that are occurring in such a short span of time. This, in addition to the almost daily reports of glacial ice melt and movement led me to ask the question "Are They Related?"
The state of the Arctic sea ice in late December 2009 remains the 2nd worst of any recorded December. The areal extent of sea ice continues to be well below the climatological average, and as it has for most of 2009, significantly below the negative 2nd standard deviation of the 1979-2000 area. The areal extent of Arctic sea ice continues to be anomalously low, as it has for well over a year now. The Hudson Bay has finally iced over. The late freeze this year was due to anomalously warm waters in the Bay in 2009. The Barents Sea remains relatively ice-free for this time of year. Remember, the Arctic Ocean hasn't seen sun in a couple of months now.
The state of the Antarctic sea ice in late December 2009 is less disturbing. After reaching a high value of ~19 million sq. km. back in late September, the 2009 melt season exceeded that of the 2008 season. That trend shifted slightly as December drew to a close - the areal extent has increased from the 1979-2000 average to the positive 2nd standard deviation. The exact value of areal extent in 2009 remains below the value measured in 2008 by a small amount. The trend found in December is likely due to this year's storms: both tracks and intensities vary year to year.
Globally, the extent of sea ice in 2009 continued the trend seen throughout the Aught's: anomalously low extent, as seen in this graph. There were only a handful of times when global ice extent was significantly above the climatological average these past 10 years and none had the magnitude of the record low extents seen in 2007 and 2008. When viewed in the long term, it is clear to see that the state of the poles has shifted in the past 10 years. The majority of that state change has been in the Arctic.
By a twist of chance, I somehow missed the much talked about UN draft text yesterday afternoon, so I'm a little late to this. A number of bloggers have referred to it as a secret UN analysis. Most folks are completely up in arms about it. Until more information comes out from the end of the Copenhagen Conference, I'm going to exercise caution and not jump to conclusions. I'll share what details I understand and provide my analysis of what's gone on.
What is everybody freaking out about? Supposedly, a "leaked UN report" contained info on cuts offered at Copenhagen and what those cuts would mean for total GHG pollution amounts and associated warming. It shows a gap of up to 4.2 gigatonnes of carbon emissions below the required 2020 level of 44Gt, that is , the level currently thought to be required to stay below a global 2C rise. That 2C rise has been cited as being critical to keeping catastrophic climate change at bay. Below that rise, we should be "okay"; above it, we will face severe climatic consequences.
The state of the Arctic ice in December 2009 is the 2nd worst of any December in recorded history. As has been the case for months now, the areal extent of Arctic sea ice continues to be nowhere near the climatological average. As I've stated before, that's indicative that a new phase of the Arctic (and Antarctic) has been reached. Arctic ice through the month of November mimicked the behavior seen in 2007, the year the extent reached the record low. Slower ice growth was seen in the first half of the month; faster growth was seen in the second half of the month. Not everything is abnormal. Ice growth has been observed in the expected locations for the most part. There is always variability of where the ice grows and when it grows there from year to year. What hasn't changed too much since 2007 is the lack of long-term (2-year or older) ice, which resists melting in the summer. A key point many climate change deniers miss is that the ice will appear winter after winter for many years to come. The lack of ice in the summer is the issue: increased solar radiation absorption by dark ocean water (instead of being reflected by white ice) adds to global ocean heat content instead of preventing it. Warmer oceans mean higher sea levels and shifting weather patterns - one aspect of climate change.
The state of the Arctic ice in November 2009 is the worst of any November in recorded history. Arctic areal sea ice extent didn't break the 2007 record for the absolute minimum, but it has never been this low in November. Further, the extent continues to be nowhere near the climatological average, just like it hasn't been for most of this year. As I've stated before, that's indicative that a new phase of the Arctic has been reached. For three years in a row, sea ice extent has bottomed out at well below two standard deviations from the average extent. For three years in a row, all-time ice-extent lows have been reached at some point in the season.
Here is my State of the Arctic post for Sep and for Aug. I didn't post anything in late October because I had a feeling a record low extent would be set shortly, which it did. The big change since my last post is the presence of weather conditions that have kept ice from refreezing at the rate it normally does this time of year. Two years ago, adverse weather conditions developed during the summer. This year, they're around in the fall. The effect is the same: relatively little ice compared to climatological norms. Here is a satellite representation of Arctic sea ice conditions from yesterday:
There were a lot of boos this year when Kyle Orton was brought to Denver for the Cutler trade to Chicago, but after going 5-0 and making few mistakes, the Denver Bronco fans have embraced Orton as their guy.
And there is more than football to like about Kyle Orton. His conscience.
from the Post's Mike Klis
Here in Colorado, where 14,000-foot peaks, blue skies and chilled mountain streams collaborate to form an outdoor recreational paradise, the Broncos' quarterback drives to work each day in an eco-friendly, energy-efficient hybrid.
"I've been driving a hybrid for four years now and I love it," Orton said. "Everybody has their choice, and it's a personal choice for me. I think it's easy for someone to do."
First, what did these climatologists do? They ran the IPCC high emissions scenario (i.e. business as usual (BAU)) in one of the few global climate models capable of analyzing strong carbon cycle feedbacks, a necessary test to truly reveal details of what our current emissions path could bring to the planet. The reason this test is necessary was apparent in the results: the same warming that resulted from a BAU scenario without the feedbacks by 2099 occurred instead around 2060 in the BAU scenario with the feedbacks. What implications does that level of warming by 2060 have for the globe by 2099? Substantially higher temperatures, especially for some regions:
(crossposted at Huffington post)
Update: I will be inserting additional information about the new Earthquakes and Tsunamis that were triggered since Tuesday... In the recent climate change debate, some of our leaders, like Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, are still insisting that these are cyclical, natural changes, or that global warming is not real because "God is still up there".
I foresee that a decade from now -- when we see all the damage that has happened -- Sen. Inhofe's comments on climate change will be viewed as some of the most misguided statements ever made by a senator.
Why?
There was a significant development that occurred yesterday, as an 8.3 earthquake struck Samoa and set off tsunami warnings in the South Pacific. Comparisons were being made to the Indian Ocean earthquake, which was the worst earthquake ever recorded at over 9 on the Richter scale.
A study examining how climate change is affecting arctic ecological dynamics was published in last Friday's edition of the journal Science. When scientists and activists state that the Arctic has warmed significantly beyond what the rest of the planet has yet experienced, thanks to human-forced climate change, climate change denyers and action delayers often respond with the unintelligent, "So what?". Well, this study is one of the first to address the "so what" in a really systematic, meaningful way. Empirical data is being sought and reported on. And the prognosis isn't good.
From the study's abstract [emphasis mine]:
Despite the buffering effect of landscapeheterogeneity, Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationshipsthat structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapidchanges may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudesand have the potential to affect ecosystem services relatedto natural resources, food production, climate regulation, andcultural integrity.
From the San Francisco Chronicle's Jennifer A. Dlouhy
Carbon dioxide will soon be declared a dangerous pollutant - a move that could help propel slow-moving climate-change legislation on Capitol Hill, the head of the Environmental Protection Agency said Monday.
EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson told reporters that a formal "endangerment finding," which would trigger federal regulations on greenhouse gas emissions, probably would "happen in the next months."
Jackson announced her timeline even as top senators said they were delaying plans to introduce legislation that would set new limits on carbon dioxide emissions. Senators had been scheduled to unveil legislation next Tuesday, but the date has now been pushed back to later in September.
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